Q1 cash flow exceeded guide by 18% and the buyback pace doubled.
Read the entry →The Cycle Diary
What the desk actually did.
Every coverage-level action this desk takes, logged in public. Not opinions; actions. Promoted means the desk's read got stronger. Demoted means it got weaker. Flagged means something new entered the picture and the work isn't finished.
Mexico royalty proposal advanced in legislature; thesis sensitivity revisited.
Read the entry →FY 2025 print and 26th consecutive raise reread against the succession question.
Read the entry →Q1 AISC printed inside guide and the producer-of-the-decade case held.
Read the entry →Westinghouse contribution disclosed at investor day; integration ahead of plan.
Read the entry →Public writeup refreshed against the FY 2025 release and the buyback pace.
Read the entry →Mainline apportionment normalised; the turnpike read remains intact.
Read the entry →Attachie Phase 1 in service; the condensate strip moved per-share value the right way.
Read the entry →53rd consecutive raise telegraphed in the annual; the rate-base compounding still works.
Read the entry →Foster Creek turnaround scope widened; full-year capex creeping above plan.
Read the entry →Free cash flow trajectory below sustaining capex through cycle on the revised price deck.
Read the entry →Potash netbacks back inside the historical band; retail margin still doing the work.
Read the entry →South Bow spin-off operating metrics diverging; rereading the remainco maturity ladder.
Read the entry →Operating ratio held inside 58–60% range; the franchise is still earning the multiple.
Read the entry →Buffett stake disclosure unchanged at 28%; Berkshire signalling, not buying.
Read the entry →Refining utilization at 97% and unit cost down for a fourth quarter running.
Read the entry →QB2 ramp curve still flattening; revised through-cycle ROIC walks closer to cost of capital.
Read the entry →Cedar LNG sanctioned with the strip locked; long-dated take-or-pay book extended.
Read the entry →Permian gas backlog conversion accelerating; coverage 2.3× on the distribution.
Read the entry →Indonesian smelter delay added six months to the export licence overhang.
Read the entry →BC mill curtailment offset by the U.S. South capacity additions; through-cycle FCF intact.
Read the entry →Detour Lake throughput at a new high; the producer-of-the-decade case keeps holding.
Read the entry →Term book signings ran double the 2024 pace at a higher floor price.
Read the entry →Dominion utility rate cases closed inside the requested band; the take-or-pay base reads cleanly.
Read the entry →Post-South-Bow remainco capex pulled back to the regulated base; balance sheet looks lighter.
Read the entry →